PMItoday - June 2009

an average of 5. 6 percent, compared to 3 percent for total GDP growth. There will be 1.2 million job openings yearly in project-oriented occupations. There is confidence in the data that the current global economic situation will not affect this long-range growth.

The Anderson study also forecasts that by 2016, demand for employees in projectized industries will increase to 32.6 million, an increase of 33 percent over the demand in 2006. Of these employees, 10.2 million will be new workers, which means that roughly 31 percent of total project-oriented workforce will need to be newly trained by 2016.

Falling Supply

At the same time, the supply of qualified project professionals will be falling during the next decade. Many experienced project managers are nearing the retirement age and not enough individuals are entering the profession every year.

Many of the individuals actively working as project managers are now at retirement age. In the United States, the General Accounting Office estimates that the current global workforce will be down by 30 percent over the next 10 years. This mirrors overall trends in the world’s labor force.

In 1950, the fraction of the total population in advanced economies who had reached the retirement age of 65 years or older was well under 10 percent. By 2005, it had grown dramatically from the 1950 levels: from 8 percent to 12 percent in the United States, from 8 percent to 13 percent in Canada, from 5 percent to 20 percent in Japan, and from 9 percent to

17 percent in the 25 countries that today make up the European Union.

By 2050, this fraction will reach 21 percent in the United States, 26 percent in Canada, 29 percent in the EU, and 36 percent in Japan, according to UN projections last updated in 2004. Even in India and China, the world’s two largest emerging

of project managers in Australia will retire in the next decade. Nearly 50 percent of AIPM’s membership falls within the 40 to 54 year age group, and another 10 percent who are in the 55 to 60 year bracket face imminent retirement.

Because the profession is extremely young (formally established in the

30% of PMI membership to retire in the next decade

economies, the percentage of those at retirement age is projected to rise from less than 5 percent to 15 percent in India and 24 percent in China.

Of PMI’s 300,000 members, 35 percent are in the 40 to 49 year age bracket, 20 percent are in the 50 to 59 year bracket, and 3 percent are in the over 60 bracket. In the next decade, PMI may see

30 percent or more of its members entering retirement.

The Australian Institute of Project
Management (AIPM) estimates one-third

1960s), there is not enough awareness of its importance among the growing generation of students and workers.

Talent Gap May Put World
Economy At Risk

The shortage of skilled project professionals will affect global economy.

The Anderson Economic Group study estimates that by 2016, spending in projectized industries will increase by $4.5 trillion, and a large amount of this will be at risk due to the lack of